Thursday, 3 January 2008

Will give shorting Oil another go

Sold some Oil at $99.42 (the Mar '08 NYMEX Crude Future) in about $50,000.

6 Month Crude Chart

I don't see the rationale for oil being up here. An economic slowdown in the US will reduce demand for oil. A strengthening dollar against Euro/Sterling will mean a falling oil price will be needed just to keep the price the same in those currencies. Persistent high prices over the last few years has brought on (some) advances in other fuels (see solar stocks or the price of grain due to ethanol demand if you don't believe this). Yes we may be at peak oil, but shouldn't that have been priced into the market? Anyway that is a long-term effect, whereas we are seeing large short-term price moves.

So. We'll see how it goes. I've put a stop loss on 2 points above where I bought it ($101.42), so if it rips higher, I'll force myself to re-evaluate again.


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