Monday, 21 January 2008

Buying a little S&P 500 for the bounce

Well, tomorrow should be interesting. Falls in Europe today of 5-7.5%, and futures way down in the US. From reading through the comments on a few other blogs, it seems like I wasn't the only bear who had taken his shorts off last week.

So I'm expecting the bears to reset shorts tomorrow, the BIG bears who had kept their shorts on to cover, and the longs to panic and dump stuff all over the place. That should set the technicals up for a squeeze higher, although the fundamentals certainly argue for further falls.

Well....that's my thesis, so I'm buying a little bit of S&P500, paying 1269 for the March future (equivalent to 1264.5 in the S&P500 itself), in about $25,000 worth. Keeping it small, I'll see how the day plays out. I think I'll probably look to cover some shorts if it gets hit really badly, and maybe I'll re-short Staples if it's down under 5%.

Stay calm folks, panic never pays.

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!
- IF by Rudyard Kipling


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