Monday, 28 January 2008

Selling some S&P500

Selling ~$27,000 worth of March S&P 500 futures at 1327.

I just feel that the market has some significant downside yet. With the credit markets on their knees, lending siezing up, the housing market looking like it has years of falling still to do, the commercial real estate crash now getting more talk on the MSM, and the fact that equity indices are higher than they were a couple of years ago despite a MUCH worse environment, I think we need to see significantly lower prices.

I also think that in the bigger scheme of things, long-term we will see smaller corporation sizes and smaller profits. The internet revolution is still only a decade old, and barriers to entry in a number of industries, already down massively over the last decade, are continuing to fall as the web techniques develop. From retail, media, real estate, even banking, and many many more industries, it doesn't take much for competition to get started. So long-term this should bring down profit margins, and result in less long-term dominant companies, as innovators improve on existing products and services.

Of course, this could take years to play out. But I'm patient, and I'll add to my short on the way down.


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