Friday, 25 January 2008

Scratched out of AUD/JPY for flat

Sold my Jun '08 long on AUD/JPY at 92.49, for basically flat P+L. I figure I was down about 3.5 points just the other day, the best part of $10,000, so f*ck it I'll unwind the trade following the monster rally of the last 2 days and look to pick it up lower. Might never happen, but I'm willing to be patient. I don't think we've seen a bottom in equities by a long-shot, so the great unwind and the Yen rally could easily reappear, not that I really agree with the rationale for Yen strength, why would you want to invest in an economy that has had stagnant growth and equity prices for nearly two decades???



dismale said...

Japan may have had poor GDP for 15 years, but surely that is reflected in the price of the Yen by now. AUD has benefited from all the love and high interest rates. The story going fwd is that interest rate differentials narrow by more than expected, hence the Yen will go up.

2and20 said...

hmmm fair enough.

i think though that a country like australia with vast natural resources and 6.25% higher interest rates still deserves a little more love versus a country with no growth and the worst public finances in the world.

i don't disagree that interest rate differentials between Japan and the US are away to narrow quickly though...given Bernanke's recent slashing of rates, I'm defininely rethinking my strategy of getting long dollars versus Euro/Sterling whenever a good opportunity arises.