Wednesday, 9 January 2008

Buying AUD/JPY

As mentioned over the last few days, the Aussie Dollar looks like a good place to have money. Interest rates at 6.75% and I hear they are going up, and whilst the commodity boom rolls on, it will do well.

The Yen, although being a favourite of the permabears (of which I have been accused of being in the past but try my best to stay rational), does not appear to me to be somewhere worth investing. 0.5% interest rates and probably going down, a 16 year deflationary economy that even 0% interest rates couldn't fix, 16 or so years of falling property values, and huge levels of government debt. Doesn't sound good to me.

I also think that markets may be oversold a little, so any recovery even in the short-term could see the carry trade pick up. With nearly 5 big figures a year in carry, AUDJPY is the place to be positioning for this sentiment change.

3 Month Chart of AUD/JPY

Spot is trading at 96.61. I just paid 94.11 for Jun '08 contract in the equivalent of about $2000 per big figure (about $189,000 worth of AUD). Lovin' that carry.


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