Tuesday, 26 February 2008

Closing CHF/JPY long

Back on December 19th, I bought Swiss Francs versus selling Yen, with the rationale being that Swissie could outperform as it has slightly higher interest rates and some chance of growth, whereas Japan looks set for another recession (I keep my eye on Japan Economy Watch). Both countries should trade similarly on a carry trade basis, so in times of stress, neither should really outperform the other.

Well, I'd left a limit order a point and a half from where I owned it, and it hit today. I'd paid 97.17 for the June contract, and sold it today at 98.77, for a profit of $960.

I don't think much has changed to change my rationale on this trade, so any selloff and I may look to get back in.

Away from that cross, I've now got nothing going on in FX. I'm frustrated that I took off my longs in AUD against JPY and GBP. I'd even written on the GBP one on Jan 9th,
"As always, I'll try and remember and keep an eye on this one, to look for the re-entry. I still think we could have a solid break out of the long-term range as the UK economy comes to a screeching halt."

Well, what a dick I am. I even watched it spike up to 2.28, and just bottled it when I should have pulled the trigger. It's now trading at 2.12! $16k or so that I should have had in my pocket.

I'm still thinking the UK is screwed, but I now don't know what to short it against. I am beginning to think the next down leg in the dollar is coming, as the fundamentals are just terrible in the US, with no solution and no end in sight for the housing problem. I hate the Euro and just refuse to buy it here. I missed the Aussie dollar as I said. I don't like the Yen, as they hit another recession and so near-zero rates look here to stay. Maybe the Swiss Franc is the way forward, but it's had a big move at the end of last year. Might keep an eye on this one though.

Finally, I think Hungary could be the next shit-show in the markets, or at least Eastern Europe in general. Global Economy Matters has some very detailed posts on this, stating

It is unlikely that the Baltics will be the first in line in connection with a potential currency run in the context of Eastern Europe. That dubious honor seems to have landed at the front step of Hungary and Romania.

See this post for plenty details. I'll probably buy USDHUF very soon, the entry point here, around 175, looks fantastic:

In fact I've talked myself into it. Just paid 174.86 in equivalent of $500 per big figure (shorted about $87k worth of HUF).

Cool. Back in the FX game.


1 comment:

CV said...

Hi 2and20

Thanks for the plug. Appreciate it. Nice blog. I had no idea that you were blogging since December :). As I said over at MM, I will be adding you to the blogroll.

On the HUF, it does seem to a big one way street at this point. The only thing which could change this would be the extent to which inflation fighting begin to act as a more decisive premium. However, in many ways it already is (i.e. the EUR/USD) and the main problem for Hungary is that the currency seems grossly overvalued from a fundamental point of view.