Tuesday, 5 February 2008

Increasing the Staples short

Last Monday, I'd shorted some Staples, about $23k worth. I'm doubling that up today at roughly the same price, selling it at $22.95.

The way I look at it, this stock's 52-week high was $27.66, back before the crunch had started and whilst the economy was chugging along OK. Also, private equity were lurking in every sector, so I suspect a lot of stocks had an LBO premium attached. All those positives are now gone, so the chance of seeing those prices in the near future look slim. So, selling today at $23, with the economy going down the tank and deflation about to rear it's head, looks like a fantastic trade to me. One of my biggest concerns is that I won't be short enough when the meltdown arrives, which was a problem last month.

Trading on a P/E of 15, when Office Depot is trading at 10. Wait for the "E" and the P/E to fall. Let's say earnings drop 20%, and the P/E moves from 15 to 12. That implies a 36% drop in the stock. Looks pretty feasible to me. Book it.

No comments: