Friday 1 February 2008

Shorting Real Estate

Just shorted:

~$6k worth of Lennar (LEN) @ $19.75

~$8k worth of Downey Financial (DSL) @ $33.95

~$8k worth of General Growth Properties (GGP) @ $37.92

~$6k worth of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) @ $90.70

What a rally some of these have had from the lows. Well, homebuilding is still a f*cked sector, and Commercial Real Estate is set to join it. Just read Calculated Risk and Mish to see the CRE disaster coming.

DSL has been posted a few times over at CR, and has an unbelievable growth rate on delinquent loans...GGP and VNO I read about over at Reggie Middleton's BoomBustBlog. Some fantastic analysis on a number of companies, I am pretty bearish already and naturally predisposed to that way of thinking, being generally skeptical, but wow this makes me think some of these companies are on the way to zero.

I've done smaller size than I usually would, as I've just got a LOT of shorts on, but if they start moving my way, I may increase the size and just put some stops in around my average price.

I'm pretty confident on these...literally, if I just leave them 'til Xmas, I don't see any way they can be higher.

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